Posted by
Sean Engmann on Saturday, September 13, 2008 6:36:52 AM
Now that John McCain has assumed the mantle as front-runner in the election, Senator Obama finds himself in a strategic quandary, as well as very unfamiliar territory. While Obama has been the underdog before, he has never before trailed a Republican, and as Charles Krauthammer points out astutely in
his column, the Senator can no longer rely on his biggest assets: change and celebrity. Obama's celebrity and his campaign theme of being an agent of change have been effectively trumped by the Republicans. Sarah Palin is now the celebrity, and by picking her, eschewing the establishment and touting his "maverick" image at the GOP Convention, John McCain has closed the change gap. With the "agent of change" gap closed, the gap that killed Hillary Clinton, the campaign will be decided on two main factors: the issues and experience, both which favor McCain. McCain's rise in the polls has resulted from a move to the center, and by claiming the center, McCain has boxed Obama in on the left wing, the same place where so many failed Democratic Presidential candidates found themselves. In order to be viable once again, Obama needs to abandon his strategy, his theme and even his brand, and boldly force McCain off his perch.
The Obama strategy is materializing, they have decided to play dirty with McCain and Palin. Obama, and much of the left perceive that John Kerry, Al Gore and Michael Ducacas were victims of "the politics of personal destruction" and he feels that he is falling victim to the same fate. The people who invented the term "Swift Boating" don't get it and neither does Obama, the past attacks were not personal in nature, they merely served as an illustration of policies that middle America is wary of, the same politics that liberal candidates routinely support. Personally attacking McCain misses the point entirely because there are no underlying issues attached to the attacks. Saying that McCain is old and attacking Palin's family do not resonate, and the polls indicate that such attacks are counter-productive.
In order to win, Obama needs to recognize that the key demographic to win in November are the Hillary voters, the same populist, middle class folks who "Cling to their guns and their religion." On Politico, John Harris
outlines advice Bill Clinton would give to Obama and he makes several good points about returning to the issues. Harris, though, misses the main point that Obama needs to re-brand, and he needs to specifically target the key demographic. If you examine all of the issues and how the candidates position themselves currently, Obama has some problems, the war is going well, the public is strongly behind McCain on the drilling issue and tax hikes will not go over well with the American public.
Obama needs to look to the past for an issue, the same issue that nearly crippled John McCain's campaign a year ago, and that's immigration. The vast majority of middle America wants to secure and close the borders and they remember John McCain's support of the amnesty policy. Obama can make the border security argument the focus of his campaign, arguing that the troops in Iraq would better be used guarding our border. Additionally, he can couch it as the centerpiece of a protectionist economic package that seeks to reduce the trade deficit with China and to protect jobs from being outsourced. This issue speaks directly to the blue collar voters in the swing states and it would drive a wedge into John McCain's support, while reminding the GOP base of its wariness of the Senator.
Should Obama pursue such a policy, he would reclaim the center and threaten to cripple the McCain campaign. The move would alienate the far left and prove that he truly is a tough leader and an agent of change. More likely, though, Obama will continue to cloak himself in his far left ideology and pave the way for a very improbable victory in November for John McCain.