Posted by
Sean Engmann on Thursday, September 11, 2008 5:20:14 AM
Throughout much of Bush's second term, the Republican party has been wallowing in the political wilderness, licking their wounds and looking toward an almost certain defeat in 2008. The Democrats, fresh from sweeping into control of both Houses of Congress had two revolutionary candidates to energize their base in Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, while the Republicans had the usual suspects with nobody to really energize Conservatives. Against the backdrop of President Bush's unpopularity, the election of a Democrat seemed certain. Almost by accident, the GOP nominated the perfect candidate, a proven reformer whose uneasy relationship with the party's base was actually an asset, while the Democrats eschewed the safe choice and nominated Barack Obama, a considerably weaker candidate than Clinton. In spite of the nominations, Obama and his broad message of change seemed as if it were going to carry the day, and Obama began to strengthen his campaign by moving back toward the center, and enjoyed a consistent 7-10 point lead in most polls and was considered as high as a 62% chance to win the election according to Intrade's market odds. From the Berlin speech, McCain's strategy has turned the tide, culminating in the nomination of Palin which essentially neutered Obama's campaign and wiped out his lead.
Obama's campaign has been based almost entirely on the theme of change and on Obama's charisma. Obama's oratory drew massive crowds, which led to very enthusiastic support and fundraising. Clinton was the candidate of substance, Obama ran a campaign on being an outsider and an agent of change, and was very vague on the meaning of change. These two strengths, his charisma and his theme of change carried the day and won him the primary, although his views were not thoroughly vetted, putting a new, but largely unknown candidate on the national stage.
The McCain strategy was to attack Obama's strengths, and that strategy has succeeded brilliantly. The first step was to use Obama's charisma against him, which he did through ads, mocking Obama as a celebrity with a messianic complex. This succeeded in taking away the theater of Obama's campaign and much of the imagery, as much of the story of Obama's acceptance speech was the grandiousity and the Greek columns, effectively turning a huge positive into a negative. With the charisma gap covered, the next step was to steal the theme of change by promoting McCain as an agent of change, and that was achieved by picking Sarah Palin and reinventing the maverick image.
The pick of Palin was brilliant, it highlighted Obama's inexperience when compared to McCain, effectively blunting any attacks on Palin. Additionally, it highlighted Obama's failure to pick Clinton as a VP. More importantly, Palin energized the GOP base and became the new face of change on the campaign. By picking Palin, a completely new face from Alaska, McCain closed the "agent of change" gap while firming up support among women, the election's key demographic.
By credibly closing the change gap and mocking his charisma, McCain has refocused the debate and taken away his opponents biggest strengths. The strategy is clear: once you get past the charisma and discredit Obama as the sole agent of change, John McCain is the far more palatable candidate for the American people. The GOP convention focused much on McCain's experience, leadership and judgement, all qualities notably lacking in Obama. Furthermore, beyond being transcendent in his looks and charisma, Obama is a typical liberal candidate, a tax and spend, big government Democrat in the style of Kerry, Ducacas and Mondale. That is the candidate the GOP is used to running against and beating. John McCain's team essentially vetted Obama, they stripped him down to his core, and that's why they are now ahead in this election.